Edmonton Oilers defy odds, a rare successful team from 2024 playoffs that just got better, not worse, says analytics expert
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This in from hockey stats analyst Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic, his assessment that of the teams that made the Final Four in the 2024 playoffs, the Edmonton Oilers were the only one that got better during the July free agency period and not worse.
Luszczyszyn assigned each NHL team a number, that number, as he put it, “is based on what the team’s Net Rating is now compared to what it would’ve been at the end of the 2023-24 season.”
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The most improved team, said Luszczyszyn, is the Chicago Blackhawks, which got a score of +51 for adding $26 million in salary with key acquisitions such as Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen, Ilya Mikheyev, Pat Maroon, Alec Martinez, TJ Brodie, Laurent Brossoit.
The biggest losers tended to be the NHL’s better teams, which also tend to be teams pressed up against the cap and unable to retain all the strong players they had acquired for the 2024 Stanley Cup run.
Bottom of the list was the Winnipeg Jets, -32, then Vegas, -28, Dallas, -27, and Florida, -23.
Key losses for Dallas were Joe Pavelski, Chris Tanev, Ryan Suter, Jani Hakanpaa, Scott Wedgewood, with Vegas losing Jonathan Marchessault, Anthony Mantha, Chandler Stephenson, William Carrier, Michael Amadio, Logan Thompson, and Florida losing Vladimir Tarasenko, Kevin Stenlund, Nick Cousins, Ryan Lomberg, Brandon Montour, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Anthony Stolarz.
That’s the price of doing deep into the playoffs, success breeding higher contract demands.
Only two teams that made it to the Final Eight of the NHL playoffs were granted plus marks under Luszczyszyn’s system, Vancouver at +1 and the Edmonton Oilers, +3, even as the salary-cap strapped Oilers added just $3 million in salary.
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Said Luszczyszyn of the Oilers: “Most Stanley Cup finalists don’t get to run it back. Usually, they have to lose some key pieces to make the cap work the following year. Lucky for Edmonton, the Oilers not only didn’t have to lose any vitals cogs, they actually got to add reinforcements… A team that was a goal away from glory getting better — even marginally so — is a big deal.”
With the retention of Adam Henrique and the addition of Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner, Luszczyszyn said, “That gives Edmonton a seriously deep top nine that may be the best forward group we’ve seen in the cap era.”
My take
1. The praise for Oilers GM Jeff Jackson just keeps coming, doesn’t it? But it’s well deserved. Jackson did what so many other GMs in his position failed to do: convince strong players to give up both salary and term in order to be part of an excellent hockey program with a solid chance to win the Stanley Cup in the next few years.
2. I don’t agree with every valuation for every player made by Luszczyszyn, as he’s only as good as the numbers he uses, and hockey analytics is not an exact science. But he’s consistent and admirably fair in assessing players through his analytical approach. He’s generally in the ballpark when it comes to the value of players, so I put weight in his overall assessment.
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3. His finding that the better teams have the hardest time improving in the July free agency period is a stark reminder of what’s to come for the OIlers. So long as Edmonton goes on deep playoff runs, it will be difficult to keep so many talented players on the squad. Not only will money have to be found under the cap for new contracts for players like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard, but also for Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg, and Stuart Skinner in the years to come. That’s a mighty amount of talent to pay for under the NHL’s cap. Painful decisions will have to be made.
4. Edmonton’s cap situation makes it all the more important that the Oilers have an owner in Daryl Katz who is willing to push as hard as he can outside of the cap system to meet every need the players have, and a manager in Jackson with the persuasive skills and managerial quality to promise an excellent environment for the players and to deliver on it. It won’t be easy to keep everyone happy on the Oilers, especially when it comes to contracts, but with Katz and Jackson leading the way, the Edmonton Oilers appear to be in strong, capable hands.
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5. Finally, as Oilers fans know, all the praise in July and pre-season is worthless in May and June. Expect Edmonton to be swamped with applause and hyped with hoopla in coming months. It’s all meaningless. All that matters is what happens on the ice starting in September, and especially starting in April.
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